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NHS treatment could double to 10 million by the end of the year

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Health bosses fear the Covid-19 crisis could see the number of people waiting for NHS treatment double to 10 million by the end of the year.

The NHS Confederation said challenges include a backlog of cases, maintaining social distancing, and staffing.

The body, which represents health and care leaders, said emergency funding and longer-term spending were needed.

The Department of Health has said it will continue to provide the resources, funding and support the NHS needs.

Guidance had been issued on how the NHS “should start to restore services in a safe way”, a spokesman added.

It comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to announce further plans to ease lockdown restrictions in England later, with zoos and drive-in cinemas among the businesses expected to be allowed to reopen from Monday.

Mr Johnson will lead the daily Downing Street briefing, where he is also likely to face questions about the government scrapping plans for all primary school children in England to return to school before the summer break.

Projections by the NHS Confederation show that the NHS waiting list is expected to rise from about 4.2 million currently to about 10 million by Christmas.

This assumes the health service makes a steady return to full capacity within the next 12 months.

In a new report, the NHS Confederation said healthcare services were operating at a reduced capacity of about 60% because of infection control measures.

The body – which covers organisations commissioning and providing health services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland – said it faces an “uphill battle” as it tries to restart cancer, stroke and heart care services, while continuing to manage thousands of sick and recovering Covid-19 patients.

Predicting the immediate future of the NHS and the likely path of patient demand is like holding a finger in the wind.

Nobody knows whether there will be a second spike of Covid-19 cases and, if there is, when that might happen and how serious it could be.

It is hard to forecast how quickly those patients who have stayed away from hospitals because of fears of the virus will return to seek urgent treatment.

Hospitals, GP surgeries and other NHS sites will need time to adapt to social distancing rules and assess how they manage their workload.

The NHS Confederation is simply saying that an independent forecast that the waiting list for routine surgery in England might hit 10 million by the end of this year looks reasonable. Others have floated similar predictions.

The bigger point being made by the confederation is that the government in Westminster needs to think very hard about how the health service is managed in the months ahead and how patients’ expectations should be prepared.

The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will have to face up to the same challenges.

Health leaders urged the government to prepare the public not to expect the same level of service for many months.

Over the past fortnight, cardiology services have restarted in England but the British Heart Foundation on Friday warned of a backlog as an estimated 28,000 heart procedures had been delayed since the outbreak of coronavirus.

Cancer services are also starting to reopen.

Cancer Research estimates about 2.4 million people in the UK are waiting for screening, treatment or tests with a potential 23,000 cancers having gone undiagnosed during lockdown.

The already-long waiting lists were “certain to rise significantly”, the body said, and coronavirus patients would continue to require care in recovery including respiratory and psychological treatment

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